Eu resolvi melhorar a previsão e o modelo pra tal sobre o Linux no desktop, uma realidade inegável.  Então escrevi algo em python pra fazer isso pra mim o trabalho e usar de algum modelo já pronto.


(venv) helio@goosfraba ~/D/linux-desktop-dominance-forecast (main)> ./forecasting.py
            Windows  OS X  Unknown  Linux  Chrome OS  iOS  Android  \
Date                                                                 
2009-01-01    95.42  3.68     0.17   0.64        0.0  0.0      0.0   
2009-02-01    95.39  3.76     0.14   0.62        0.0  0.0      0.0   
2009-03-01    95.22  3.87     0.16   0.65        0.0  0.0      0.0   
2009-04-01    95.13  3.92     0.17   0.66        0.0  0.0      0.0   
2009-05-01    95.25  3.75     0.24   0.65        0.0  0.0      0.0   

            Playstation  Other  
Date                            
2009-01-01         0.08   0.02  
2009-02-01         0.07   0.02  
2009-03-01         0.08   0.02  
2009-04-01         0.10   0.02  
2009-05-01         0.09   0.02  
            Windows   OS X  Unknown  Linux  Chrome OS  iOS  Android  \
Date                                                                  
2024-01-01    73.00  16.11     5.33   3.77       1.78  0.0      0.0   
2024-02-01    72.17  15.42     6.10   4.03       2.27  0.0      0.0   
2024-03-01    72.47  14.68     6.52   4.05       2.27  0.0      0.0   
2024-04-01    73.50  14.70     5.34   3.88       2.56  0.0      0.0   
2024-05-01    73.91  14.90     4.87   3.77       2.54  0.0      0.0   
2024-06-01    72.81  14.97     6.23   4.05       1.93  0.0      0.0   
2024-07-01    72.10  14.92     7.13   4.44       1.41  0.0      0.0   

            Playstation  Other  
Date                            
2024-01-01          0.0   0.01  
2024-02-01          0.0   0.01  
2024-03-01          0.0   0.01  
2024-04-01          0.0   0.01  
2024-05-01          0.0   0.01  
2024-06-01          0.0   0.01  
2024-07-01          0.0   0.01  
/home/helio/DEVEL/linux-desktop-dominance-forecast/venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:473: ValueWarning: No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency MS will be used.
  self._init_dates(dates, freq)
/home/helio/DEVEL/linux-desktop-dominance-forecast/venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:473: ValueWarning: No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency MS will be used.
  self._init_dates(dates, freq)
/home/helio/DEVEL/linux-desktop-dominance-forecast/venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:978: UserWarning: Non-invertible starting MA parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
  warn('Non-invertible starting MA parameters found.'
RUNNING THE L-BFGS-B CODE

           * * *

Machine precision = 2.220D-16
 N =           11     M =           10
 This problem is unconstrained.

At X0         0 variables are exactly at the bounds

At iterate    0    f=  2.00575D-01    |proj g|=  1.24633D+00

At iterate    5    f= -1.49635D-01    |proj g|=  1.77236D-01

At iterate   10    f= -3.64537D-01    |proj g|=  1.24837D-01

At iterate   15    f= -3.84843D-01    |proj g|=  1.22570D-01

At iterate   20    f= -4.20877D-01    |proj g|=  9.71167D-02

At iterate   25    f= -4.29351D-01    |proj g|=  1.13565D-01

At iterate   30    f= -4.33425D-01    |proj g|=  9.06436D-02

At iterate   35    f= -4.34142D-01    |proj g|=  3.98871D-02

At iterate   40    f= -4.36192D-01    |proj g|=  4.26757D-01

At iterate   45    f= -4.37801D-01    |proj g|=  6.82859D-02

At iterate   50    f= -4.37938D-01    |proj g|=  1.67285D-02

           * * *

Tit   = total number of iterations
Tnf   = total number of function evaluations
Tnint = total number of segments explored during Cauchy searches
Skip  = number of BFGS updates skipped
Nact  = number of active bounds at final generalized Cauchy point
Projg = norm of the final projected gradient
F     = final function value

           * * *

   N    Tit     Tnf  Tnint  Skip  Nact     Projg        F
   11     50     55      1     0     0   1.673D-02  -4.379D-01
  F = -0.43793754789434586     

STOP: TOTAL NO. of ITERATIONS REACHED LIMIT                 
/home/helio/DEVEL/linux-desktop-dominance-forecast/venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607:
  ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
  warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to "
The year of Linux on the Desktop: 2036-11-30 00:00:00

Se ignorarmos os pequenos erros e avisos que aparecem, coisa pouca e irrelevante como valor divergir demais, podemos ver claramente quando o ano do Linux no desktop acontece: 2036-11-30

Então a previsão revisada é que logo estaremos em todos os lugares. Aguardem-nos!

E claro que publiquei isso tudo no GitHub:

E usei o seguinte artigo como referência (e código, diga-se de passagem):

Bom ano do Linux no desktop pra todos vocês.

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